A lot has happened since we woke up on Friday morning to a United Kingdom having voted itself out of the +European Union and I've not really posted anything about it because I felt like getting snippets of info one trickle at a time wasn't going to be helpful. But now there's a clearer picture that is starting to emerge and the keyword here is contingency (or lack thereof as the case may be)
As you might imagine the EU leaders haven't been idle since the first talks of this EU referendum started making their way to Brussels. One may think all they want about European parliamentarians and commissioners not being democratically elected (I'm sorry did someone say "House of Lords"?) but they remain nonetheless well prepared to bring about all the legislation that is being voted at EU level. That's why Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker were so keen on Friday for Westminster to kick start the process by declaring article 50. They know what the process is supposed to be, they are prepared and ready to start the negotiations.
Sadly the same can't be said about Westminster
Since the results all the lies have again been revealed as such (with a big sense of deja-vu for us Scots), Cameron has announced his resignation effectively dumping the responsibility of starting up the break-up of the EU membership to whoever his successor is likely to be, Boris Johnson went off to play cricket and nobody has apparently hared from George Osborne. What's more it has now been made clear that not only did the Leave side not expect to win, but there was no plan whatsoever in place if case the did, dumping that responsibility on the Prime Minister.
Not only that but the Labour Party who is the effective opposition to the Tory government is now rife with internal conflicts from some wanting a vote of non-confidence to their party leader, Jeremy Corbyn to half their shadow cabinet resigning, including the shadow Scottish Secretary of State and only Scottish Labour MP Ian Murray.
Meanwhile up here in Edinburgh, Nicola Sturgeon, our First Minister, has shown true leadership by announcing before anything else that we EU immigrants will always be welcome here in Scotland. No one else has said such words. She went on to affirm that it is her duty to explore all options to ensure continuity of EU membership for Scotland whatever form this may take including running a second Independence Referendum.
Let me say a quick word about #IndyRef2 here because it's important to point out:
Since the announcement on Friday morning that a new referendum would be on the table some polls have started to surface that show an increase support in favour of independence which would tip the balance in its favour were the ballot ran today or tomorrow. One poll even went as far as claiming 59% in favour of yes, though latter polls were more along the lines of 55% and 54% for yes. As encouraging as these are, it will need more than a few snap polls to ascertain a result within the timeframe required to organise a new referendum and set it in motion. Sustainability of support is the key word here and the actions of both Brussels and Westminster will be key in cementing people swayed support for independence.
I won't go into the repercussions of independence and how different it's likely to be from the 2014 one as it's deviating a little from the original point of this post.
I will say this though. The United Kingdom is on its way out of the EU. No matter whether Holyrood can veto it or finding out some other way to void the results, as far as the EU is concerned, the UK is now on its way out. It's final and there's nothing anyone can do about it which wouldn't be an attack on the democratic process.
People of England and Wales (and the other nations too) have made an irrevocable, stupid and misinformed but irrevocable decision which has knock-on effects far wider than they could have imagined. Ultimately I believe they'll be the worst for it as the UK economy is likely to decline. The pound seems to have stabilised at about $1.35 but it's devalued so much I'm not sure what effects this will have on trade come Monday (see https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBPUSD%3DX#symbol=GBPUSD=X;range=5d).
In my view the only way this could be saved is if the Conservative Party finds itself a bold and forward-thinking leader that can detangle the country from this quagmire it put itself into and negotiate with Brussels terms which can benefit everyone. Unfortunately I can't think of anyone fitting the profile right now.
I'm proud to be a Scot right now (civic nationalism is a lovely thing by the way) and although the economic future is looking bleak and uncertain I remain faithful that Scotland as a country can come out of this stronger, independent (most likely) or not.
[All of this is my analysis based on events of the past 2 days or so as well as succinct analysis I've read too numerous to quote (I apologise)]
[Illustration via Twitter, too good not to use]
Luciano Floridi on Twitter: “Unbeatable Jane Austen “
@Floridi @guillorybe 48 to 52. Its way too narrow to say there was any kind of majority. Just vote again and strike it down in parliament. Sorry, Twitter is taking too long to load. Try again. Home · Sign up · Log in · Search · About. More like this; Less like this; Cancel. Not on Twitter?
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